Terms of use
Last updated 16 September 2026. Using this site means accepting these terms.
The term that actually matters
This estimates whether ice has FORMED. It says nothing about ice QUALITY, bonding, or whether a route should be climbed.
Ice climbing kills people who were more experienced than you and better informed than this site. Nothing here is a substitute for looking at the climb.
What this site is
Ice Cycles runs a physical model of weather data over documented ice climbing venues and publishes what the model produces: modelled quantities, with units and uncertainty, and cautions derived from them.
It is not an observation of ice. It does not know whether ice exists, whether it is attached to the rock, whether it would hold a tool, or whether anyone should go anywhere. A model output is a statement about a simulation of the weather, not about a waterfall.
No warranty, and no liability
This site is provided as is, with no warranty of any kind, express or implied, including any warranty of accuracy, fitness for a particular purpose, or availability. The model may be wrong. The weather data it is fed may be wrong. The route coordinates may be wrong.
To the fullest extent the law allows, the operator of this site is not liable for any injury, death, loss or damage arising from the use of anything published here, including decisions made in reliance on a model output or on another user’s report.
You are responsible for your own decisions in the mountains. That responsibility is not transferable to a website.
Observations you post
A report is your claim, attributed to you, not a statement by this site. Post only what you actually saw, with the vantage point you actually had. “Seen from the road” is a useful observation; it is only harmful when it is presented as having been touched.
By posting an observation, photo or comment you confirm it is yours to post, and you grant this site a non-exclusive, worldwide, royalty-free licence to store, display and use it — including as input to the model and its calibration. You keep ownership of it.
Do not post: another person’s photo, anything that identifies a person who did not agree to it, access information that would harm a landowner relationship, or a fabricated report. Fabricated reports are the one failure this system cannot absorb, because the model is calibrated on them.
Accounts and moderation
One account per person. Photos are moderated before they are shown. An account that posts fabricated reports, abuse or other people’s material can be suspended, and its contributions removed, without notice.
There is no paid tier and no donor version: everyone sees the same estimates. A tip buys nothing.
Access and land
A route appearing on this site is not permission to climb it. Closures, permits, seasonal raptor restrictions, private land and park regulations are between you and whoever manages that ground, and they change faster than this site does.
Data and attribution
Weather data comes from Open-Meteo under CC BY 4.0, downscaled and modelled here rather than served as published, with terrain from USGS 3DEP, streamflow from USGS NWIS, lake ice from NOAA GLERL and forecasts from the National Weather Service. Model output on this site is not endorsed by any of them.
Do not scrape the site or resell its output as a condition report. That is the misrepresentation these terms exist to prevent.
Changes and contact
These terms change when what the site does changes, and the date at the top moves with them. Questions and complaints go to oryfrazier@gmail.com or the feedback form. What is stored about you is covered separately in the privacy policy.