IceCyclesmodelled ice formation

This estimates whether ice has FORMED. It says nothing about ice QUALITY, bonding, or whether a route should be climbed.

Modelled from weather data. Not an observation of ice, and not advice.

Hyalite Canyon, MT

The model estimates whether ice has formed. Ice quality and bonding are not observable from weather data and are not modelled. How the model works.

299 routes across 54 areas, every one with a confirmed position.

Cold so far

17 freezing degree-days since 1 October

More cold banked than 5 of the last 15 seasons to this date, less than 10.

2011–12: 10 degree-days'112012–13: 36 degree-days2013–14: 73 degree-days'132014–15: 2 degree-days2015–16: 0 degree-days'152016–17: 28 degree-days2017–18: 65 degree-days'172018–19: 52 degree-days2019–20: 93 degree-days'192020–21: 75 degree-days2021–22: 38 degree-days'212022–23: 19 degree-days2023–24: 4 degree-days'232024–25: 8 degree-days2025–26: 23 degree-days'252026–27: 17 degree-days2026–27median of previous 15: 28 degree-days

Each day that averages below 0 °C adds how far below: a day averaging −5 °C adds 5. Warm days are not subtracted, so a thaw that strips ice does not show here. Modelled at the climbs' typical elevation, not measured on them. It is not a prediction: early cold on its own has not predicted when ice arrives in the seasons this project has records for. Every season is measured over the same window, 1–25 October.

Access is yours to check

This site says nothing about whether you may reach or climb these routes. That is decided by whoever manages the land — a park, a forest, a city, a tribe, a private owner — and by permits, seasonal and wildlife closures and local law, all of which change. A route listed here is not a route you are allowed to climb, and a route with no restriction noted here may still be closed. Check with the land manager before you go.

Ice festival

Bozeman Ice Festival — early December

The people who actually know this venue, once a year in one place.

Guidebook

The House of Hyalite, 2nd Edition (2023) by Joe Josephson

Route positions are in the guidebook and not on this site. The author walked the terrain and verified the lines; that work is theirs to sell.

The author’s site

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