IceCyclesmodelled ice formation

This estimates whether ice has FORMED. It says nothing about ice QUALITY, bonding, or whether a route should be climbed.

Modelled from weather data. Not an observation of ice, and not advice.

Caton Creek, ID

The model estimates whether ice has formed. Ice quality and bonding are not observable from weather data and are not modelled. How the model works.

1 route across 1 area. None has a confirmed position, so they are listed here without a model estimate.

Cold so far

0 freezing degree-days since 1 October

No day has averaged below freezing yet. 2 of the last 15 seasons had banked some cold by this date.

2011–12: 0 degree-days'112012–13: 0 degree-days2013–14: 0 degree-days'132014–15: 0 degree-days2015–16: 0 degree-days'152016–17: 0 degree-days2017–18: 3 degree-days'172018–19: 0 degree-days2019–20: 7 degree-days'192020–21: 0 degree-days2021–22: 0 degree-days'212022–23: 0 degree-days2023–24: 0 degree-days'232024–25: 0 degree-days2025–26: 0 degree-days'252026–27: 0 degree-days2026–27median of previous 15: 0 degree-days

Each day that averages below 0 °C adds how far below: a day averaging −5 °C adds 5. Warm days are not subtracted, so a thaw that strips ice does not show here. Modelled at the climbs' typical elevation, not measured on them. It is not a prediction: early cold on its own has not predicted when ice arrives in the seasons this project has records for. Every season is measured over the same window, 1–17 October.

Autumn recharge

84 mm since 1 September

Wetter than 11 of the last 15 autumns to this date, drier than 4.

2011: 70 mm'112012: 27 mm2013: 161 mm'132014: 50 mm2015: 59 mm'152016: 131 mm2017: 84 mm'172018: 50 mm2019: 99 mm'192020: 74 mm2021: 39 mm'212022: 27 mm2023: 54 mm'232024: 59 mm2025: 85 mm'252026: 84 mm2026median of previous 15: 59 mm

Seep-fed rock needs water in it before cold can do anything, so this is one of the two things a season needs. It is not a prediction: the other is sustained cold, which nothing here forecasts, and autumn rainfall on its own has not predicted when ice arrives in the seasons this project has records for. Every year is measured over the same window, 1 September – 17 October.

Access is yours to check

This site says nothing about whether you may reach or climb these routes. That is decided by whoever manages the land — a park, a forest, a city, a tribe, a private owner — and by permits, seasonal and wildlife closures and local law, all of which change. A route listed here is not a route you are allowed to climb, and a route with no restriction noted here may still be closed. Check with the land manager before you go.

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