IceCyclesmodelled ice formation

This estimates whether ice has FORMED. It says nothing about ice QUALITY, bonding, or whether a route should be climbed.

Modelled from weather data. Not an observation of ice, and not advice.

Sandstone Ice Park, MN

The model estimates whether ice has formed. Ice quality and bonding are not observable from weather data and are not modelled. How the model works.

The park makes this ice

Sandstone Ice Park is farmed: an operator runs water overnight and decides what exists in the morning. Whether ice is there is their answer, not this site’s, and their conditions page is the thing to read.

Sandstone Ice Park conditions report

6 routes across 1 area. None has a confirmed position, so they are listed here without a model estimate.

Cold so far

0 freezing degree-days since 1 October

No day has averaged below freezing yet. None of the last 15 seasons had one by this date either.

Each day that averages below 0 °C adds how far below: a day averaging −5 °C adds 5. Warm days are not subtracted, so a thaw that strips ice does not show here. Modelled at the climbs' typical elevation, not measured on them. It is not a prediction: early cold on its own has not predicted when ice arrives in the seasons this project has records for. Every season is measured over the same window, 1–6 October.

Autumn recharge

97 mm since 1 September

Wetter than 5 of the last 15 autumns to this date, drier than 10.

2011: 20 mm'112012: 17 mm2013: 122 mm'132014: 132 mm2015: 135 mm'152016: 121 mm2017: 155 mm'172018: 123 mm2019: 176 mm'192020: 35 mm2021: 134 mm'212022: 85 mm2023: 153 mm'232024: 41 mm2025: 115 mm'252026: 97 mm2026median of previous 15: 122 mm

Seep-fed rock needs water in it before cold can do anything, so this is one of the two things a season needs. It is not a prediction: the other is sustained cold, which nothing here forecasts, and autumn rainfall on its own has not predicted when ice arrives in the seasons this project has records for. Every year is measured over the same window, 1 September – 6 October.

Access is yours to check

This site says nothing about whether you may reach or climb these routes. That is decided by whoever manages the land — a park, a forest, a city, a tribe, a private owner — and by permits, seasonal and wildlife closures and local law, all of which change. A route listed here is not a route you are allowed to climb, and a route with no restriction noted here may still be closed. Check with the land manager before you go.

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