Munising, MI
The model estimates whether ice has formed. Ice quality and bonding are not observable from weather data and are not modelled. How the model works.
203 routes across 10 areas, every one with a confirmed position.
Cold so far
0 freezing degree-days since 1 October
No day has averaged below freezing yet. None of the last 15 seasons had one by this date either.
Each day that averages below 0 °C adds how far below: a day averaging −5 °C adds 5. Warm days are not subtracted, so a thaw that strips ice does not show here. Modelled at the climbs' typical elevation, not measured on them. It is not a prediction: early cold on its own has not predicted when ice arrives in the seasons this project has records for. Every season is measured over the same window, 1–25 October.
Autumn recharge
92 mm since 1 September
Wetter than 1 of the last 15 autumns to this date, drier than 14.
Seep-fed rock needs water in it before cold can do anything, so this is one of the two things a season needs. It is not a prediction: the other is sustained cold, which nothing here forecasts, and autumn rainfall on its own has not predicted when ice arrives in the seasons this project has records for. Every year is measured over the same window, 1 September – 25 October.
Access is yours to check
This site says nothing about whether you may reach or climb these routes. That is decided by whoever manages the land — a park, a forest, a city, a tribe, a private owner — and by permits, seasonal and wildlife closures and local law, all of which change. A route listed here is not a route you are allowed to climb, and a route with no restriction noted here may still be closed. Check with the land manager before you go.
Ice festival
Michigan Ice Fest — FebruaryThe people who actually know this venue, once a year in one place.
Local shop
Down Wind Sports — MunisingThey hear what the ice is doing from the people who were just on it. A plain link: this site takes no cut.
Guidebook
An Ice Climber's Guide to Michigan's Upper PeninsulaRoute positions are in the guidebook and not on this site. The author walked the terrain and verified the lines; that work is theirs to sell.
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