IceCyclesmodelled ice formation

This estimates whether ice has FORMED. It says nothing about ice QUALITY, bonding, or whether a route should be climbed.

Modelled from weather data. Not an observation of ice, and not advice.

Dixville Notch, NH

The model estimates whether ice has formed. Ice quality and bonding are not observable from weather data and are not modelled. How the model works.

1 route across 1 area, every one with a confirmed position.

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Cold so far

11 freezing degree-days (°C°F) since 1 October

Less cold banked than in any of the last 15 seasons to this date.

2011–12: 7 degree-days °C'112012–13: 14 degree-days °C2013–14: 16 degree-days °C'132014–15: 6 degree-days °C2015–16: 6 degree-days °C'152016–17: 6 degree-days °C2017–18: 11 degree-days °C'172018–19: 26 degree-days °C2019–20: 19 degree-days °C'192020–21: 23 degree-days °C2021–22: 4 degree-days °C'212022–23: 1 degree-days °C2023–24: 20 degree-days °C'232024–25: 9 degree-days °C2025–26: 7 degree-days °C'252026–27: 1 degree-days °C2026–27median of previous 15: 9 degree-days °C
2011–12: 12 degree-days °F'112012–13: 26 degree-days °F2013–14: 29 degree-days °F'132014–15: 10 degree-days °F2015–16: 11 degree-days °F'152016–17: 10 degree-days °F2017–18: 20 degree-days °F'172018–19: 47 degree-days °F2019–20: 34 degree-days °F'192020–21: 42 degree-days °F2021–22: 8 degree-days °F'212022–23: 2 degree-days °F2023–24: 35 degree-days °F'232024–25: 15 degree-days °F2025–26: 12 degree-days °F'252026–27: 1 degree-days °F2026–27median of previous 15: 15 degree-days °F

Each day that averages below 0 °C adds how far below: a day averaging −5 °C adds 5.Each day that averages below 32 °F adds how far below: a day averaging 23 °F adds 9. Warm days are not subtracted, so a thaw that strips ice does not show here. Modelled at the climbs' typical elevation, not measured on them. It is not a prediction: early cold on its own has not predicted when ice arrives in the seasons this project has records for. Every season is measured over the same window, 1 October – 10 November.

Access is yours to check

This site says nothing about whether you may reach or climb these routes. That is decided by whoever manages the land — a park, a forest, a city, a tribe, a private owner — and by permits, seasonal and wildlife closures and local law, all of which change. A route listed here is not a route you are allowed to climb, and a route with no restriction noted here may still be closed. Check with the land manager before you go.

Guidebook

An Ice Climber's Guide to Northern New England by Rick Wilcox and S. Peter Lewis

Route positions are in the guidebook and not on this site. The author walked the terrain and verified the lines; that work is theirs to sell.

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