IceCyclesmodelled ice formation

This estimates whether ice has FORMED. It says nothing about ice QUALITY, bonding, or whether a route should be climbed.

Modelled from weather data. Not an observation of ice, and not advice.

Black Mountain - Central, VT

The model estimates whether ice has formed. Ice quality and bonding are not observable from weather data and are not modelled. How the model works.

1 route across 1 area, every one with a confirmed position.

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Cold so far

23 freezing degree-days (°C°F) since 1 October

Less cold banked than in any of the last 15 seasons to this date.

2011–12: 11 degree-days °C'112012–13: 20 degree-days °C2013–14: 25 degree-days °C'132014–15: 9 degree-days °C2015–16: 9 degree-days °C'152016–17: 10 degree-days °C2017–18: 14 degree-days °C'172018–19: 28 degree-days °C2019–20: 21 degree-days °C'192020–21: 26 degree-days °C2021–22: 5 degree-days °C'212022–23: 2 degree-days °C2023–24: 21 degree-days °C'232024–25: 11 degree-days °C2025–26: 8 degree-days °C'252026–27: 2 degree-days °C2026–27median of previous 15: 11 degree-days °C
2011–12: 19 degree-days °F'112012–13: 37 degree-days °F2013–14: 45 degree-days °F'132014–15: 16 degree-days °F2015–16: 15 degree-days °F'152016–17: 19 degree-days °F2017–18: 24 degree-days °F'172018–19: 50 degree-days °F2019–20: 38 degree-days °F'192020–21: 46 degree-days °F2021–22: 9 degree-days °F'212022–23: 3 degree-days °F2023–24: 37 degree-days °F'232024–25: 20 degree-days °F2025–26: 14 degree-days °F'252026–27: 3 degree-days °F2026–27median of previous 15: 20 degree-days °F

Each day that averages below 0 °C adds how far below: a day averaging −5 °C adds 5.Each day that averages below 32 °F adds how far below: a day averaging 23 °F adds 9. Warm days are not subtracted, so a thaw that strips ice does not show here. Modelled at the climbs' typical elevation, not measured on them. It is not a prediction: early cold on its own has not predicted when ice arrives in the seasons this project has records for. Every season is measured over the same window, 1 October – 10 November.

Autumn recharge

221 mm since 1 September

Wetter than 5 of the last 15 autumns to this date, drier than 10.

2011: 277 mm'112012: 252 mm2013: 244 mm'132014: 229 mm2015: 245 mm'152016: 210 mm2017: 316 mm'172018: 274 mm2019: 316 mm'192020: 217 mm2021: 227 mm'212022: 234 mm2023: 217 mm'232024: 119 mm2025: 199 mm'252026: 221 mm2026median of previous 15: 234 mm

Seep-fed rock needs water in it before cold can do anything, so this is one of the two things a season needs. It is not a prediction: the other is sustained cold, which nothing here forecasts, and autumn rainfall on its own has not predicted when ice arrives in the seasons this project has records for. Every year is measured over the same window, 1 September – 10 November.

Access is yours to check

This site says nothing about whether you may reach or climb these routes. That is decided by whoever manages the land — a park, a forest, a city, a tribe, a private owner — and by permits, seasonal and wildlife closures and local law, all of which change. A route listed here is not a route you are allowed to climb, and a route with no restriction noted here may still be closed. Check with the land manager before you go.

Guidebook

An Ice Climber's Guide to Northern New England by Rick Wilcox and S. Peter Lewis

Route positions are in the guidebook and not on this site. The author walked the terrain and verified the lines; that work is theirs to sell.

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