IceCyclesmodelled ice formation

This estimates whether ice has FORMED. It says nothing about ice QUALITY, bonding, or whether a route should be climbed.

Modelled from weather data. Not an observation of ice, and not advice.

Hyalite Canyon, MT

As Free As It Gets

flow-fed
elevation
2508 m
aspect
288.8°
position
map_digitized
terrain check
passed

Cautions from the weather record

  • 7 consecutive nights above -1 C

    The model shows no overnight refreeze across this period. Modeled ice mass is being lost rather than rebuilt.

  • 13 C temperature swing in the past 24 hours

    Rapid warming expands ice against the rock behind it. The model treats this as a bond stressor independently of whether melting occurred.

  • Peak modeled absorbed sunlight 266 W/m2

    This aspect takes direct sun during the climbing window at this date.

Model estimate

Model estimates ice has not formed

Modelled mass
0 mm w.e.
Of typical season
0%
Model confidence0.05 / 1.00
  • route constants are not calibrated against observed formation dates
  • position digitised from a map rather than walked with a GPS
  • position source recorded as map_digitized but not confirmed against the original
  • forecast lead of 9 d
  • horizon shading not traced; direct beam may be overestimated

Reports from people who were there

No one has reported on this route in the past three weeks.

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